The Seahawks have had more success than most over the last decade of action, only registering a lone season under .500 since 2014. Of course, the recent returns haven't been quite so fun, as the 2023 season marked the first time Seattle finished with a negative point differential since 2010.
A lack of success is usually accompanied by major turnover in the NFL, and the Seahawks are no different: Longtime head ball coach/practice squad QB Pete Carroll has been replaced by former Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.
The times are indeed a-changin' in Seattle, and the team's new-look roster ahead of 2024 reflects this reality. A quick overview of the Seahawks' fantasy-relevant coaching staff and major offseason moves (QB/RB/WR/TE) to this point:
- Head coach: Mike Macdonald (first season as head coach, formerly Ravens DC in 2022-23)
- Offensive coordinator: Ryan Grubb (61.1% pass-play rate as the University of Washington OC in 2022-23, 9th in the Power 5)
- Offseason arrivals: QB Sam Howell (acquired from Commanders), TE Pharaoh Brown (1-year, $3.2 million), RB/WR Laviska Shenault (1-year, $1.292 million), QB PJ Walker (1-year, $1.145 million)
- Offseason departures: QB Drew Lock (Giants), RB DeeJay Dallas (Cardinals), TE Will Dissly (Chargers), TE Colby Parkinson (Rams)
- Fantasy-relevant draft picks: Michigan TEA.J. Barner (4.121)
- Reigning PFF offensive line rank andreturning starters: No. 28, 2of 5
The team's porous offensive line will hopefully be improved after the front office added third-round UConn OL Christian Haynes as well as free agents like George Fant, Nick Harris and Laken Tomlinson. Still, the group has a long way to go in order to resemble something close to an average unit, which isn't exactly great news for whoever spends the most time under center next season.
Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Outlook: Position by Position
Quarterback
- QB1: Geno Smith (FantasyLife consensus rank: QB23)
- QB2: Sam Howell
The Seahawks haven't been overly public about crowning Smith as their 2024 starter, which is at least a bit interesting considering some of thespecific verbiage from ESPN's Adam Schefter when discussing the Seahawks' decision to trade for Sam Howell.
Of course, Genoshould win the job with ease as long as he continues to largely play damn good football. The savvy veteran has been one of the game's most efficient QBs since taking over forRussell Wilson in 2022.
Smith among 48 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2022-23
- EPA per dropback: +0.084 (No. 17)
- Completion percentage over expected: +4.2% (No. 1)
- PFF pass grade: 82.2 (No. 13)
- Passer rating: 96.8 (No. 9)
- Yards per attempt: 7.4 (tied for No. 13)
Now, those numbers were indeed better in 2022 compared to 2023, but that's also life going from Dave Canales to Shane Waldron. It's not a given that new OC Ryan Grubb gets Geno partying like it's 2022 again; just realize at a minimum we have very recent evidence that the 33-year-old signal-caller is capable of playing the position at a high level.
Jan 7, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) throws in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Of course, having one of the game's better WR trios helps matters. This was the league's seventh-best WR room in terms of their average "Open Score" which is meant to quantity separation ability.
Then again, playing behind PFF's reigning 28th-ranked offensive line didn't exactly do Smith any favors last season: The Seahawks allowed a quick pressure (under 2.5 seconds) at the league's second-highest rate (28.9%). If anything, Geno deserves a lot of credit for being one of just eight QBs to take a sack on under 15% of their pressured dropbacks — note that Howell (23.1%) was the league's third-worst QB in this metric.
Ultimately, we're forced to play a game of what version of Geno are we going to get:
- 2022: 17.9 fantasy points per game (QB8)
- 2023: 15.1 (QB22)
It'd make sense if Grubb's vertical passing game helps bring out a similar 2022-level ceiling, although it remains to be seen if the team's flimsy offensive line can hold up long enough for this offense's various talented pass-catchers to truly cook downfield.
Bottom line: The leash here doesn't seem overly long, which is problematic considering the potential for a slow start in (another) new offense. There is a WIDE possibility of outcomes here, ranging from an early season trip to the bench, to a 2022-esque renaissance resulting in another QB1 finish. Ultimately, this sort of volatility is something to embrace in the late rounds of fantasy drafts when appropriate. I'm not actively looking to leave drafts with Geno as my QB1, but he offers a more proven ceiling in the final few rounds of drafts than most of the Year-1 and -2 guys he's priced around, making him an ideal third option at the position in best ball/Superflex formats.
Running Back
- RB1: Kenneth Walker (RB17)
- RB2: Zach Charbonnet (RB43)
- RB3: Kenny McIntosh
- RB4: Laviska Shenault
Walker's short NFL career has produced 2,379 total yards and 18 trips to the end zone in a pair of 15-game seasons. The former second-round pick has flashed some true big-play ability along the way, although his boom-or-bust rushing style has also led to one of the position'shigher stuff rates.
While Walker deserves some slack in terms of efficiency numbers due to having over twice as many rush attempts as Charbonnet last season, the rising second-year talent has the edge in basically everything other than forcing missed tackles (which I would argue is simply more descriptive of rushing style than anything):
- Yards per carry: Charbonnet (4.3), Walker (4.1)
- Yards over expected per carry: Charbonnet (+0.18), Walker (-0.13)
- Yard after contact per carry: Charbonnet (3), Walker (2.9)
- Missed tackles forced per carry: Charbonnet (0.16), Walker (0.26)
- Explosive run rate: Charbonnet (15%), Walker (11%)
- Stuff rate: Charbonnet (17%), Walker (21%)
Does this coaching staff overly care about any of this? Probably not, but the idea that the backs are both, you know, good football players lends credence to the idea that this could be more of a committee in 2024. The Seahawks were certainly willing to hand Charbonnet a near-every-down role when Walker missed time last season, but the latter back remained the clear No. 1 RB whenever healthy enough to suit up.Overall, Charbonnet never earned more than 10 touches in a game that Walker was fully healthy for in 2023.
Oct 29, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) carries the ball while Cleveland Browns safety Juan Thornhill (1) chases during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
It's tough to have too much of an idea of Grubb's plans here, especially with his Washington backfields utilizing more of a two-back committee in 2022 before leaning on a featured back in 2023.
- 2022: Wayne Taulapapa (164 touches); Cameron Davis (126)
- 2023: Dillon Johnson (257); Tybo Rogers (50)
Fantasy Life Projections are leaning toward more of a split than last year, as Walker (198 carries, 33 targets) has the overall lead, but Charbonnet (122 carries, 40 targets) profiles as a quality backup and potential primary pass-down option.
Here's to hoping this backfield at least sticks to just these two options; things get murky in a hurry in fantasy land once three or more RBs get involved.
Bottom line: Walker isn't someone I've made a habit of clicking at his RB16, pick 67.1 price tag due to the potential for him to be more of an early-down grinder without the luxury of a high-scoring offense or elite offensive line. Is there really THAT much difference in projection between Walker and guys likeZamir White andZack Moss, who regularly go 20-plus picks later? Meanwhile, Charbonnet (RB41, pick 133.9) is a far more affordable "FLEX with benefits" option who could surprise with more of a 1.B role than we saw last seasonand possesses true boom handcuff upside thanks to his demonstrated three-down ability.
Wide Receiver
- WR1: DK Metcalf (WR20)
- WR2: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR46)
- WR3: Tyler Lockett (WR51)
- WR4: Jake Bobo
- WR5: Dee Eskridge
Metcalf turns 27 in December and is fresh off averaging a career-high 16.9 yards per reception. Boom-or-bust nature be damned, the former second-round pick has consistently put up good, albeit not great, fantasy numbers since entering the league in 2019:
- 2019: 11.7 PPR points per game (WR41)
- 2020: 17 (WR10)
- 2021: 14.4 (WR22)
- 2022: 13.3 (WR25)
- 2023: 14.1 (WR22)
Beingexceptionally big and fast has helped Metcalf go a long way, although his target-earning ability has left a bit to be desired over the years on a team always content to keep multiple WRs heavily involved in the offense.
Enter: JSN and Lockett. The former WR disappointed as a rookie with a middling 63-628-4 receiving line, notably failing to reach even 65 yards in a single game. The latter veteran out-targeted Smith-Njigba (122 vs. 93), although career-worst efficiency in terms of yards per target (7.3)finally prevented the longtime baller fromsmashing his preseason ADP.
Oct 22, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) and Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (16) celebrate after Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Should we expect a changing of the guard?JSN certainly seems happy to have a new offensive coordinator in town, althoughFantasy Life Projections aren't so sure that we should be getting too far ahead of ourselves:
- Metcalf: 120 targets
- Lockett: 102
- Smith-Njigba: 97
The hope is that JSN's route tree at least won't be as neutered as it was in 2023. Overall, onlyRondale Moore (6.3),Wan'Dale Robinson (5.5) andRashee Rice (5.2) had a lower average target depth than Smith-Njigba (6.4) last season among 80 WRs with at least 50 targets.
There's certainly a lot of talent here, but would it be THAT surprising to see the team's new defensive-minded head coach embrace the run a bit more than fantasy managers would prefer, particularly if the team's far from golden QB room underwhelms?
Bottom line: The good news about buying into these WRs in fantasy land is the reality that none of Metcalf (WR20, pick 27), JSN (WR48, 82.9) or Lockett (WR51, 97.9) are all that expensive. The bad news is the trio (again) figures to eat into each other's target shares, leaving a relatively low ceiling for each inside of a passing game not exactly expected to resemble the 1999 Rams. I've dabbled plenty with Metcalf in Round 3 of best ball drafts thanks to his week-winning upside but don't plan on overly going out of my way for any of these WRs once redraft leagues really get going.
Tight End
- TE1: Noah Fant (TE23)
- TE2: Pharaoh Brown
- TE3: A.J. Barner
Poor QB play in Denver and a lack of true high-end target share in Seattle have prevented Fant from ever making a huge difference in fantasy land. The former 20th overall selection hasn’t been bad from an efficiency standpoint, although he's never managed to really stand out in a Seahawks offense with plenty of additional high-end avenues to go with the football:
Fant among 27 TEs with 100-plus targets in 2022-23
- PFF receiving grade: 68.0 (No. 18)
- Passer rating when targeted: 111.1 (No. 5)
- Yards per target: 8.5 (No. 4)
- Yards per reception: 11 (No. 10)
- Yards after the catch per reception: 5 (No. 11)
- Yards per route run: 1.34 (No. 18)
- Targets per route run: 15.7% (No. 23)
The yards per target number is especially intriguing:Only George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert have managed to best Fant over the past two seasons.
The big question ahead of 2024: Will the Seahawks continue to rotate their TEs under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb? Last year's contributors,Will Dissly (Chargers) andColby Parkinson (Rams), are both out of the picture, leaving Fant as the last man standing in this Geno Smith-led (for now) passing attack.
Bottom line: Ultimately, the money (two-year, $21 million extension) bodes well for Fant's chances of seeing a larger role than in past years. TEsgenerally take longer than other positions to boom in fantasy land. Fant has been one of my favorite LATE-round upside options at the position this offseason; he'll be on the cover of Week 2 waiver wire articles should something close to a true full-time role emerge inside this suddenly barren TE room.
Seahawks 2024 Season Prediction
Adding Texas DL Byron Murphy and extending stud DL Leonard Williamsshould give the Seahawks one of the league's better interior defensive lines, although there remains a lot of question marks in a secondary that tentatively still needs to replace starting safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs. It'd make sense if Macdonald's schematic expertise helps matters, but the NFL's reigning 25th-ranked scoring defense has a ways to go before approaching above-average.
Maybe the clock won't strike midnight on Geno's fairytale career just yet, but I'm skeptical.Give me under 7.5 wins for a team with very serious question marks under center, on the offensive line and defense in general.
More 2024 NFL Team Previews
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